Purpose & Scope
- Time horizons: months–years (events), decades–centuries (climate), and 10⁴–10⁶ years (ten thousand to one million years) cycle windows.
- Mechanisms: climate forcing, trophic cascades, disease, geomorphic reorganization, geomagnetic/solar perturbations, plus anthropogenic hunting, conversion, contamination, fragmentation, conflict, and genocide.
- Units: species, guilds, biomes, cultures, and mixed bio–geo–social systems.
Core claims: (1) Extinctions are patterned, not random; (2) human pressures amplify baselines; (3) nodes act as refugia or failure foci depending on substrate and timing; (4) ethical state variables measurably change risk and must be modeled.
Model Architecture
State Variables
- B (Biotic): abundance/structure, genetic diversity, keystone presence, disease load.
- G (Geo–hydro): aquifer status, flow regime, flood/drought recurrence, landform stability, shoreline change.
- C (Climatic/orbital): anomalies; ice/sea-level; E–O–P phase windows; storm tracks.
- M (Mineral resonance): piezo/filtration/acoustic damping capacity (V3.5).
- H (Human): land use, harvest, toxins, fragmentation, governance, conflict/genocide risk.
- L (Connectivity): corridor throughput, pinch points, barriers.
- E (Energy buffer): water/biomass/thermal reserves (V3.9).
Coupling Logic
Extinction-risk operator:
𝓧 = f( φ(B,L), Ψ(G,M), Θ(C), Ω(H), ΔE ) → scaled to [0,1]
- φ: biotic resilience ↑ with diversity, keystones, corridor integrity.
- Ψ: substrate hazard ↑ with desaturation/salinization, loss of filtration/damping.
- Θ: forcing spikes during phase-locked extremes (V3.7 windows).
- Ω: human amplification from exploitation, contamination, organized violence.
- ΔE: positive buffers (water/biomass/thermal) reduce 𝓧.
Composition: 𝓧 = 1 - (1 - 𝓧_nat)(1 - Ω(H)) to capture amplification of natural baselines by human drivers.
Indices
| Index | Meaning | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| NPR | Natural Pulse Risk | Probability of threshold crossing under {G,M,C} given current buffers. |
| AER | Anthropogenic Extinction Risk | Contribution from H (includes conflict/genocide). |
| CRI | Composite Refugia Index | Capacity to hold biomass & culture during shocks (higher = safer). |
| TEI | Trophic Elasticity Index | Rebound potential from diversity, keystone integrity, L. |
| CSI | Cultural Survival Indicator | Risk to languages/lineages under environmental + conflict stress. |
Event Classes & Plays
1) Hydro-Pulse Die-Off
Drivers: rapid desiccation/salinization; aquifer collapse; toxic blooms. Signals: HTCI drift (V3.6), spring/estuary δ¹⁸O/δD shifts; corridor throughput anomalies. Plays: emergency re-wetting, flow re-routing, barrier removal, pollutant interception, riparian shade rebuilds.
2) Thermal/Orbital Squeeze
Drivers: persistent heat/cold regimes tied to V3.7 windows; current re-routing; sea-level. Signals: phenology desync, mass mortality, range cliffs. Plays: assisted migration along pre-modeled corridors; micro-refugia construction; shoreline setback & sediment-positive design.
3) Pathogen & Vector Cascade
Drivers: reservoir spillover under crowding/habitat shift; corridor mixing. Signals: multi-species mortality; Re drift; novel serotypes. Plays: contact reduction; habitat separation; targeted biomedical tools where appropriate; non-pharmaceutical measures; environmental sanitation; PSL guardrails: informed consent, independent oversight, community co-design, secure audit trails.
4) Conflict & Genocide Shock
Drivers: resource scarcity + governance failure; targeted violence. Signals: displacement, burned-area spikes near settlements, comms blackouts. Plays: PSL escalation: neutral corridors, data sanctuaries, third-party monitoring, cease-fire corridors for people & wildlife; cultural archive protection; legal/advocacy triggers.
5) Information/Trust Collapse & Counterintelligence
Drivers: deliberate disinformation, weaponized doubt, historical harms that depress baseline trust, coercive tactics, uncertainty exploited during crises (including medical/public-health contexts).
Signals: divergence between hazard and behavioral response; rumor kinetics & sentiment inversions; clinic uptake anomalies; vandalism/targeting of scientists, journalists, rangers; sharp polarity in community advisory processes.
Plays (Trust-aware PSL Protocols):
- Data provenance & transparency: open methods, reproducible pipelines, tamper-evident logs.
- Community co-governance: local advisory boards with real veto/modify power; dual-path interventions (people can choose among harm-minimizing options).
- Trusted messengers: partner with culturally-embedded leaders; multilingual, non-coercive outreach.
- Red-teaming: proactive adversarial testing of comms and interventions; publish failures & fixes.
- Ethical guardrails for biomedical/environmental actions: informed consent; independent oversight; opt-in defaults where feasible; grievance & remedy channels.
- Empathy Triad Method (3-tier lens): (1) obvious claim; (2) underlying driver; (3) empathetic condition (socioeconomic, historical harm, identity). Require teams to document all three before taking action.
Methods
- Baseline natural risk: build 𝓧nat from {G,M,C} and φ(B,L); calibrate at paleo die-offs and documented collapses.
- Anthropogenic overlay: construct Ω(H) (0–1) from harvest, conversion, toxins, fragmentation, conflict/genocide, and trust metrics (Event Class 5); compose via
𝓧 = 1 - (1 - 𝓧_nat)(1 - Ω). - Early-warning: rising variance/autocorrelation in B/G/E; corridor throughput anomalies; disease Re shifts; rumor kinetics & sentiment drift for Class 5.
- Counterfactuals: swap Ω(H) across matched nodes; ablate single drivers to quantify marginal effects.
- Ethics hooks: tag sites where Ω(H) is dominated by conflict/genocide or trust collapse; route to PSL protocols and third-party observation.
Site & Corridor Templates
- High-Quartz, High-Water (Andean headwaters; Vermont uplands): filtration & acoustic damping; risks: drought pulses, fragmentation; plays: protect springs, culvert retrofits, seasonal flow banking, co-managed access.
- Shelf/Deltascape (Mekong, Amazon, Gulf): nursery productivity; risks: sea-level, salinization; plays: setback lines, sediment-positive engineering, mangrove re-weave, inclusive relocation plans.
- Arid Paleochannels (Sahara/Arabian; Great Victoria): hidden groundwater; risks: aquifer mining, heat spikes; plays: paleoriver reconnection, shaded water points, fence gaps, mobile herder compacts.
- Volcanic Caldera Lakes/Islands (Aleutians; Ethiopian Highlands): microclimate refugia; risks: ash/anoxia, isolation; plays: multi-route corridors, oxygenation protocols, biosecurity, community trust cells for alerts.
Outputs
- Hazard atlases: 𝓧 maps (NPR/AER layers) with confidence & trend arrows.
- Refugia playbooks: site-specific actions keyed to event classes 1–5.
- Trust dashboards: rumor kinetics, sentiment, messenger maps, and audit trails (Class 5).
- Drill scripts: annual/seasonal/shock-mode exercises with ethics checkpoints.
Validation & Reproducibility
- Back-tests: known reef collapses, river fish kills, defaunation waves, cultural displacements.
- Cross-basin prediction: train Corridor A → predict B; independent datasets for scoring.
- Sensitivity: vary weights ±0.1 and report rank stability.
- Paleo checks: ensure natural pulses align with V3.7 windows and V3.3 temporal anchors.
- Trust trials: A/B co-designed messaging vs. standard outreach; publish outcomes.
Bridge Forward
To V4: convert risk fields into watershed-resonance buffers and refugia design. To V5: integrate EM/plasma disturbance classes into Θ(C). To V6: formalize corridor neutrality, data sanctuaries, and memory stewardship; embed the Empathy Triad into PSL decision gates.
Ethos: Extinction is a governable statistic when natural pulses are understood, human amplifiers (including trust) are measured, and ethical triggers are codified.